The current level of interest rates may be greater risk zibba

The greater the sina finance opinion leaders column current interest rates upward risk may (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Xu Gao as governments will rely more on fiscal policy to achieve the long-term goal of the economy, the future assets investment in the main line is more likely to be around "inflation expectations". Taking into account the structural changes in the economy, the future of the low interest rate environment will remain, but the long-term negative interest rate environment is not stable, the current level of interest rates may be greater risk. The current upward trend in interest rates may be even greater risk of monetary easing in Europe and Japan in particular, the negative interest rate policy is the main reason for the past two years, the global interest rate down. Low interest rates are the key factors driving the 2016 global asset classes as the change in the trend, but the overall level of interest rates in global financial markets down sharply in 2016 was largely affected by the European Central Bank monetary easing, especially the impact of negative interest rate policy. Due to the liberalization of capital account liberalization, the European Central Bank through the monetary easing to the global output of low interest rates negative interest rates. This paper mainly discusses the disadvantages of ultra low interest rates and long-term negative interest rates in the economy and financial markets, and central banks have been aware of this, the future transformation of government policies on the combination of the categories of asset allocation strategy will bring what changes? In 2016, the impact of monetary policy on financial markets in developed countries was different. First of all, the marginal effect of monetary policy in developed countries has decreased significantly, and the market has obviously increased the effectiveness of monetary policy. The currency exchange rate and the stock price movements in Europe and Japan have reflected that the path of monetary easing seems to have come to an end. Secondly, the European Central Bank’s negative interest rate policy pushed up the scale of the global negative yield bonds to an unprecedented high, which constitutes a destabilizing factor in financial markets. Finally, the central bank continued to buy bonds led to a sharp decline in the liquidity of the bond market, especially in Europe and Japan, the central bank has been able to face the situation of debt can be bought. It also reflects the extent to which the Central Bank of the developed world has used monetary easing in 2016. The long-term low interest rates or negative interest rates have the following disadvantages: the need to remain vigilant of negative interest rates is a boundary, the central bank can not be unlimited to cut interest rates below zero. When the negative interest rate approach or exceed the cost of holding cash savers, depositors will choose to hoard cash, financial disintermediation. Long term low interest rates are expected to lead to residents or businesses more anxious to borrow consumer investment. When the long-term interest rates remain low or lower, the future will be higher than the discounted value of consumption or investment, so residents or businesses will be more reluctant to borrow or invest in consumption. It can be said that once the ultra low interest rates formed a consistent market expectations, it means that the basic failure of monetary policy! Low interest rates to reduce the profitability of banks and other financial institutions, leading to credit crunch. The long-term low interest rates also undermine the monetary fund, the pension insurance business model. When a large number of bond yields fell to negative value, insurance funds had to seek higher yields, which buried a greater financial instability risks. The instability in the financial market risks to the monetary policy of the central banks more passive. Once the central bank credit is damaged, the effect of future monetary policy will be greatly reduced. The negative interest rate policy as the traditional monetary policy).相关的主题文章:

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